Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-28.
The consensus tape has been marked up hard: FY28 normalized EPS has gone from $1.08 to $2.21 over 180 days, and FY27 revenue from $14.1bn to $19.8bn. Most of that move landed between 180 and 90 days ago; over the last 30 days revenue has sat still and only EPS is still edging higher. The prints underneath read differently, with revenue below consensus four quarters running and EPS surprises swinging violently in both directions. The street has not followed the estimates: seven holds, no buys, and targets from $13 to $35.
FY28 EPS consensus has more than doubled in six months while revenue has been flat for 30 days
The revision is lopsided: FY28 EPS is up 105% over 180 days against 48% for revenue, and in the last 30 days revenue has gone sideways while EPS still ticks up. The feed carries no analyst count for the 180-day baseline, so part of that six-month gap may be a changing estimate set rather than broker-level revisions.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $1.00 | $1.45 | $1.48 | $1.51 | +4.5% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $1.07 | $1.88 | $2.18 | $2.21 | +17.1% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $14.05bn | $19.56bn | $19.79bn | $19.78bn | +1.1% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $15.06bn | $21.63bn | $22.24bn | $22.23bn | +2.7% |
Four straight revenue misses, but Q1 FY26 EPS landed 88% above consensus
Revenue has come in below consensus in each of the last four quarters, the largest a 10% shortfall in Q4 FY25. Normalized EPS is the opposite: the two most recent prints missed by 35% and then beat by 88%, so the quarterly EPS line carries little predictive value.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 4 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive beat.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $4.92bn | $4.65bn | -5.5% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.10 | $2.07 | +88.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.12bn | $2.81bn | -10.2% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.92 | -$1.24 | -34.6% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $3.08bn | $2.99bn | -3.1% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.58 | -$0.53 | +8.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.92bn | $2.86bn | -1.9% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.84 | -$0.89 | -6.5% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $2.87bn | $3.05bn | +6.3% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.81 | $0.92 | +13.9% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $2.47bn | $2.39bn | -3.2% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.58 | -$0.62 | -6.5% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $2.35bn | $2.42bn | +3.3% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | -$0.18 | -$0.22 | -25.0% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $2.17bn | $2.22bn | +2.2% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.15 | $0.20 | +29.0% | Beat |
Forward estimates
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.02bn | $18.54bn | $19.78bn | $22.23bn | — | 9 | $11.93bn / $12.10bn |
| EBITDA | -$189.83m | $525.82m | $725.93m | $1.01bn | — | 7 | -$232.62m / -$162.00m |
| Gross margin | 15.0% | 18.3% | 18.7% | 19.5% | — | — | — |
| EPS (normalized) | -$1.29 | $1.10 | $1.51 | $2.21 | — | 8 | -$1.42 / -$1.19 |
Eight analysts put FY27 EBITDA anywhere from $486m to $1,109m
FY27 EBITDA is the widest economically material line, with a spread worth 86% of the mean across eight analysts. Even FY26, with one quarter already reported, still carries a $0.63 to $1.49 normalized EPS range across ten analysts.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $725.93m | $485.75m–$1.11bn | 85.8% | 8 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2026E | $1.10 | $0.63–$1.49 | 78.3% | 10 |
| Revenue | FY2027E | $19.78bn | $15.22bn–$21.74bn | 33.0% | 9 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $22.23bn | $17.56bn–$23.89bn | 28.5% | 5 |
No buys against seven holds, and targets spanning $13 to $35
Eleven ratings carry no buys and no sells: seven holds, three outperform, one underperform, for a consensus score of 2.82. The ten targets run $13 to $35 against a $24.20 mean and a $21 median, so the mean sits well above the median.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 0, Outperform 3, Hold 7, Underperform 1, Sell 0 | 11 |
| Consensus score | 2.82 | 11 |
| Target price | mean $24.20; median $21.00; high $35.00; low $13.00 | 10 |
FY29 rests on one analyst; FY28 on five
FY29 carries a single analyst on two lines only, so the $2.62 EPS and $1,189m EBITDA are one broker's model rather than a consensus. FY28 thins to five analysts on revenue and six on EPS, meaning the FY27-to-FY28 step is drawn by a smaller panel than the FY26 and FY27 columns.